Tversky and Kahneman, 1981
"90% survive" and "10% die" are the same number. They do not get chosen the same way.
The classic study offers two responses to a disease expected to kill 600 people.
Wording A: "200 will be saved" versus "a one-third chance all 600 are saved, two-thirds chance none are." → the sure thing wins.
Wording B: "400 will die" versus "a one-third chance nobody dies, two-thirds chance everybody does." → now the gamble wins.
A and B describe identical outcomes. The only change is saved-language versus died-language, and the majority flips.
People are cautious about gains and reckless about losses.
Describe what you get and you want it locked in. Describe what you lose and you reach for any chance of losing nothing, even a bad one.
The same number reads as a gain or a loss depending on the frame it sits in. Hence the name.
The uncomfortable part: knowing about it does not switch it off.
Exactly one. Say it back the other way round.
"30% off today" → "you pay 70% of list". "80% success" → "one in five fails". "Low churn" → "most people stay".
If the feeling moves, that is where you were being pulled. The number did not change, so what changed was you.
25% fat or 75% lean
Two labels on the exact same mince. "75% lean" tastes better in blind ratings than "25% fat".
Supermarket labels are, as a rule, written on the flattering side.
"Just 100 yen a day"
A 3,000-yen monthly service priced per day. Same money, smaller sting.
When the seller wants the loss felt, it becomes "36,000 yen a year wasted". Same number, different box.
Surcharge or discount
A card surcharge and a cash discount are the same arrangement. "Surcharge" provokes far more anger, so shops write "cash discount".
If you take one thing
It works on the words you use on yourself, too. "Half still left" and "half already gone" are both true, and you get to pick.
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